See updates through September 19, 2024, at end of post.
My inclination is to think Vladimir Putin is bluffing, but if he isn’t, we may well be on the precipice of what a few people are worrying may be World War III. The U.S. and U.K. are discussing allowing Ukraine to strike military targets inside Russia. Putin, who has claimed to be fighting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization all along, and has sought to emulate Peter the Great and his empire, an empire that included territory now held by NATO countries, has threatened war on NATO in response.[1]
What precipitates this are discussions to allow Ukraine to stop fighting with one hand tied behind its back, that is to use U.K.- and U.S.-supplied munitions to strike military targets within Russia—Russia obviously suffers no such constraint on its ability to strike within Ukraine—is Iran, also the power behind Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel, shipping missiles to Russia in support of its war effort against Ukraine.[2]
If he has half a brain cell left, Donald Trump must be thrilled. He is Putin’s toady. He is Binyamin Netanyahu’s toady.
And of course, the neoconservatives, including, it must be said, Kamala Harris, in their adoration of Israel and Netanyahu, will have once again bitten off much more than they can chew, and to put it mildly, on a much grander scale than I imagined.[3]
Me, I’m on the wrong side of all of this, supporting Ukraine and opposing Israel’s genocide. When Putin launched his second invasion of Ukraine (the first was Crimea), I argued that his imperialist logic would lead inexorably to a wider war and figured we should get it over with. More recently, it has been clear that Netanyahu, too, seeks a wider war that would draw in the U.S.[4] Which is to say that everybody would be happy but me—and, of course, all the people who are dying, will die, and would die.
Update, September 15, 2024: I have already predicted a wider regional war in the Middle East. This is meant to and likely will draw in the U.S. and enjoys the full backing of U.S. neoconservatives whose ideology forms the governing paradigm in Washington, D.C.[5]
We are starting to see how this World War III will be justified. It seems that Russia is trading information on nuclear weapons development for previously reported Iranian ballistic missiles.[6] In addition to increasing the threat to Ukraine,[7] this, of course, threatens a nuclear exchange with Israel which both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have pledged to defend, apparently at any cost.
This war will have two parents: Vladimir Putin and Binyamin Netanyahu. But, of course, we will blame Putin and Iran. I am aghast as I continue to wonder how many lives must be sacrificed to neoconservative bloodlust.
Update, September 17, 2024: The least that can be said of White House efforts to contain Israel’s war on and genocide against Gaza is that they are a failure.[8] I strongly doubt that those efforts are sincere as a wider regional war may very well combine with Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine to yield a neoconservative-pleasing World War III.[9] It is hard to see how, with so many nuclear powers involved, this doesn’t go nuclear[10] in a more complicated scenario than I anticipated when Vladimir Putin launched that invasion but assumed inevitable. And the latest despicable Israeli attack on Lebanon, involving exploding pagers, aimed at Hezbollah but also severely injuring civilians—including children[11]—is surely another step along the way.
Update, September 18, 2024: For a second straight day, Israel has attacked Hezbollah’s communication devices, adding more injuries, including among the innocent, to yesterday’s count. This round of attacks appears to have targeted two-way radios. For its part, Hezbollah claims it is undeterred in its attacks supporting Hamas and promises a severe response to these Israeli attacks in addition.[12]
Update, September 19, 2024: There’s a bit to digest in a Washington Post analysis of why Israel’s Mossad attacked Hezbollah’s communication devices when it did, suggesting that once the plan was set in motion, the trigger needed to be pulled quickly to avoid detection.[13] But Joe Biden’s administration has supposedly—to no avail and I don’t believe convincingly—trying to tamp down any Israeli move to broaden the war for months. Mossad all along had the option to not set this plan in motion, but this is one more bit of evidence[14] that, of course, Binyamin Netanyahu wants a wider war,[15] which of course is how Hezbollah interprets it.[16] But the prevailing mythology in the U.S. is that Biden wants to restrain Israel despite his refusal to cut off weapons and funding.[17] We need to accept that neither Netanyahu nor Biden are acting in good faith, that both are criminals of the highest order, and that we cannot have a serious discussion about the genocide in Gaza or a wider regional war in the Middle East or a possible World War III until we do.
[1] Dan Bloom, Esther Webber, and Jamie Dettmer, “Putin threatens war as Western allies near deal on missile strikes in Russia,” Politico, September 12, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-vladimir-putin-war-in-ukraine-missile-strike-deal-britain-keir-starmer-united-states-joe-biden-white-house-summit-nato-iran-diplomacy/
[2] Dan Bloom, Esther Webber, and Jamie Dettmer, “Putin threatens war as Western allies near deal on missile strikes in Russia,” Politico, September 12, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-vladimir-putin-war-in-ukraine-missile-strike-deal-britain-keir-starmer-united-states-joe-biden-white-house-summit-nato-iran-diplomacy/
[3] David Benfell, “Get ready to fight, kids,” Not Housebroken, September 9, 2024, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/get-ready-to-fight-kids; David Benfell, “Kamala Harris, the neoconservative,” Not Housebroken, September 11, 2024, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/kamala-harris-the-neoconservative
[4] Murtaza Hussain, “Israel and Israel Alone Kicked Off This Escalation — In a Bid to Drag U.S. Into War With Iran,” Intercept, April 14, 2024, https://theintercept.com/2024/04/14/israel-iran-drag-us-war-netanyahu-biden/
[5] David Benfell, “Get ready to fight, kids,” Not Housebroken, September 9, 2024, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/get-ready-to-fight-kids
[6] Dan Sabbagh, “Alarm in UK and US over possible Iran-Russia nuclear deal,” Guardian, September 14, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/14/alarm-in-uk-and-us-over-possible-iran-russia-nuclear-deal
[7] Dan Bloom, Esther Webber, and Jamie Dettmer, “Putin threatens war as Western allies near deal on missile strikes in Russia,” Politico, September 12, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-vladimir-putin-war-in-ukraine-missile-strike-deal-britain-keir-starmer-united-states-joe-biden-white-house-summit-nato-iran-diplomacy/
[8] Stephen Collinson, “America’s push for an Israel-Hamas deal is a failure on repeat. But the US can’t walk away,” Cable News Network, September 6, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/american-push-israel-hamas-deal-analysis/index.html
[9] David Benfell, “World War III?” Not Housebroken, September 15, 2024, https://nothousebroken.substack.com/p/world-war-iii
[10] Thalif Deen, “Are the World’s Ongoing Conflicts in Danger of Going Nuclear?” Inter Press Service, September 17, 2024, https://www.ipsnews.net/2024/09/worlds-ongoing-conflicts-danger-going-nuclear/
[11] Suzan Haidamous et al., “Thousands injured in Lebanon as pagers used by Hezbollah explode,” Washington Post, September 17, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/09/17/lebanon-pagers-exploding-hezbollah/
[12] Susannah George et al., “Lebanon reels as more devices explode, casualties rise,” Washington Post, September 18, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/18/hezbollah-israel-pager-attack-lebanon-explosions/
[13] Loveday Morris, Joby Warrick, and Shira Rubin, “A key question behind Israeli attack on Hezbollah devices: Why now?” Washington Post, September 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/18/israel-hezbollah-pagers-lebanon-war-strategy/
[14] Loveday Morris, Joby Warrick, and Shira Rubin, “A key question behind Israeli attack on Hezbollah devices: Why now?” Washington Post, September 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/18/israel-hezbollah-pagers-lebanon-war-strategy/
[15] Murtaza Hussain, “Israel and Israel Alone Kicked Off This Escalation — In a Bid to Drag U.S. Into War With Iran,” Intercept, April 14, 2024, https://theintercept.com/2024/04/14/israel-iran-drag-us-war-netanyahu-biden/
[16] Claire Parker, “Hezbollah chief calls pager, radio attacks an ‘act of war’ by Israel,” Washington Post, September 19, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/19/israel-lebanon-attack-explosions-hezbollah/
[17] Stephen Collinson, “America’s push for an Israel-Hamas deal is a failure on repeat. But the US can’t walk away,” Cable News Network, September 6, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/american-push-israel-hamas-deal-analysis/index.html